Calm Before the Storm?
LATEST UPDATE: As of 7:00 pm, approximately 150,000 people had gathered. by 8:20, the crowed was estimated at 200,000 strong.
The idea of a peaceful rally, a non-violent demonstration, or civil protest is a very new think in Korea. It is only in the last several years that marching down the street, signing songs, and sitting in the middle of the street has replaced running down the streest, martial chants, and tearing up the streets and thowing the broken pieces of the street at policemen along with firebombs. Traditionally, large groups of people and large groups of policemen have been a very bad mix. However, in recent years, the violence had died down and people were finding more creative ways to protest in a non-violent way.
All of the warm fuzzies and non-violence suddenly went out the window last year the the very violent demonstrations against the Chilean Free Trade Agreement and against locating a nuclear waste dump in Buan. Those were minor disturbances compared to what could result from this impeachment. Public sentiment seems to be largely against the impeachment, regardless of whether it was lawful or not. Koreans have a long history of rising up quite violently against political oppression and rejection of public opinion. Many people are already comparing the struggle against the impeachment of President Roh to other past struggles against authoritarian and military dictatorships and oppression.
People began holding public demonstrations and candlelight vigils protesting the impeachment. However, once the rallys reached huge proportions, they were declared illegal. One thing that Koreans do not like is to have there political freedoms, particularly their freedom of political speech curtailed. I was relieved to see that the reaction of the huge crowds of people congregating each night backed by more than 200 NGO goups did not immediately turn to violence. The organizers creatively used the legal loophole allowing cultural demonstrations and continued holding the rallies under the pretext of being cultural events.
It took exactly one day for the crafty policemen to realize that it was simply a case of a rose by another name smelling just as sweet. The rallies were again declared illegal on the grounds that they were not really cultural events. The authorities then came out and began threatening to take criminal actions against the organizers and others participating in the illegal rallies and insisting that the law will be followed.
In defiance of the threats, some 2,000 people took to the streets last night to continue the anti-impeachment rallies. Despite continued threats from the government, the rallies are planned to continue.
Tonight, organizers and pundits are estimating that up to 1,000,000 people across the country will participate in rallies tonight in major cities. Conservative estimates put the number to participate in a rally in Seoul at 100,000. Other, more liberal estimates put the expected crowd in Seoul at around 300,000 people. That is a huge, unstable powder keg. It is currently harmless, but it has immeasurable destructive potential, and it only takes one spark. That spark: 9,000 policemen at the Seoul rally.
Tonight and tomorrow are major milestones in the direction that the protests and anti-impeachment effots go. If there is peace this weekend, I think there will be peace until the Constitutional Court renders its decision. If there is violence tonight, it will continue to get worse, and I don’t know where it will end.
Unfortunately, I think its going to get ugly.