Am I Psychic or What? North Korea Nuke NOT a Nuke???

Filed under: Korea — Jeff in Korea at 9:45 pm on Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Yesterday over at The Marmot’s Hold, guest writer Dram_man announced that the Korean Won is in freefall as a result of North Korea’s “nuclear test”. In his article titled, “Get To That Bank!“, He urged people to “Get your savings pulled out now before things get really bad. “

In my reply to his article, I questioned whether there was actually a nuclear detonation at all:

There is still no confirmation that there was actually a nuclear test and not just a coincidental earthquake or the detonation of conventional bombs.

Well…. it seems that I may have been proven correct.

According to the Associated Press, there are serious doubts that there was a nuclear test and there is much suspicion that it was the detonation of conventional bombs.

[France’s Atomic Energy Commission] estimated the North Korean blast at around 1 kiloton or less _ equivalent to the explosive force of 1,000 tons of TNT. For a nuclear device, that would be so weak that the French defense minister suggested that “there could have been a failure” with the North Korean reported test.

South Korea’s geological institute estimated the blast to be half of what the French estimated.

According to a Washington Times article, U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast. Also, seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast’s readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation. The article will also reportedly state that the underground explosion, which Pyongyang dubbed a historic nuclear test, is thought to have been the equivalent of several hundred tons of TNT, far short of the several thousand tons of TNT, or kilotons, that are signs of a nuclear blast.

7 Comments »

Comment by kimchipig

10 October 2006 @ 1:15 pm

You know, the more I read and hear about what happened the more I think the Norks let off a big pile of TNT just to screw with people’s heads.

I also think that anybody who has spent any time in SK knows that this kind of psychotic crap is par for the course from the Dear Leader. I wouldn’t let it spoil my day.

Comment by Jeff in Korea

10 October 2006 @ 1:46 pm

That is exactly the reason that I do not believe that the north has actual nuclear weapons and why I do not believe that the test was a nuclear test. I will maintain my position until I am proven wrong by actual hard evidence.

Comment by Allan

11 October 2006 @ 11:39 am

First, it was the 4th of July Long Dong missile that couldn’t and now their non-nuke .5 kiloton. To put 500 lbs in perspective their “device” would take out the Seoul train station. Not a problem. Check out the Korea Herald picture on page four for what they’re going to use next. Jeff, how’s the leg?

Comment by Becky Perry

13 October 2006 @ 6:28 am

In the wake of North Korea’s first successful nuclear test, The Washington Post’s PostGlobal and Oxford International Review are sponsoring exclusive blog responses to a question posed by former South Korean President and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Kim Dae-Jung:
Why do you think the current US Administration has refused direct negotiations with North Korea, despite North Korea’s proposal to do so?

OIR posed this question to a panel of students from the United States and Asia gathered at Hong Kong University to participate in the Asia Institute for Political Economy, a program conducted by The Fund for American Studies. Click here to read their commentary, in light of recent events: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/debate/korea/

Because of your interest in the region, you are invited to join the conversation and pose questions to our panel. OIR and PostGlobal would love your input.
http://www.oir.org.uk
blog.washingtonpost.com/postglobal

Pingback by France: North Korean Nuke Test a Failure at DPRK Studies

14 October 2006 @ 1:12 am

[…] That, of course, if it was a nuclear test, and Kevin and Jeff point out. Saddam can attest to the possible penalty for bluffing, but that’s not for North Korea, at least yet. […]

Comment by H. Kim

14 October 2006 @ 12:16 pm

Hate to cast a “black rain” on your parade, but I think ya’ll need to check this out:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061014/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_nkorea

Comment by H. Kim

15 October 2006 @ 6:23 pm

That, of course, if it was a nuclear test, and Kevin and Jeff point out. Saddam can attest to the possible penalty for bluffing,

Here we have almost a situation eerily similar to Sadaam’s back in 2002. Sadaam said he didn’t have ‘em, no one believed him. Here, KJI says he DOES, and still you guys don’t believe him. What to do?

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